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Launched in 2006, Epolitics is written and edited by Colin Delany, who has worked with nonprofits and political campaigns to use digital tools to achieve their political and policy goals since the early days of the political internet. He is also a frequent speaker and trainer and the author of How to Use the Internet to Change the World – and Win Elections (new 2026 edition on the way soon!). Contact him at cpd@epolitics.com.
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Will Trump Spend His 2026 Money on TV? Will He Spend It at All?
UPDATE: As this article was going to publication, news emerged that Trump has reserved ad space worth $10 million in Texas, listed as Connected TV and Digital Advertising. So at least he’s spending something, though considering he saddled Texas Republicans with Ken Paxton in the first place, it’s the least he could do. We also learned more about an additional $2.85 million in spending from Elon Musk.
From a Republican candidate’s point of view, which is worse: stupid money, or no money at all?
Per the Post, Republicans are suddenly worried Trump might have been pinkie-swearing when his team promised he would spend big to help Republicans up for election in November:
With early voting about to begin in competitive midterm races, President Donald Trump has kept most of his super PAC money on the sidelines, causing Republican leaders to conclude that it’s too late to fully deploy the cash in the midterms and that he intends to hold on to much of it for his own purposes.
I’m shocked, SHOCKED that Donald Trump might stiff the help.
Of course, we all know Trump always rips people off, just like we know he usually talks big when he’s trying to pull off a project on the cheap. That includes politics: After promising to self-fund his 2016 presidential campaign, he ended up putting in a fraction of the money he could have. He actually paid for most of the fall campaign through an email list built via Facebook ads, i.e., a list of Fox-adjacent older folks who’d give up their Social Security check if it helped Trump.
Now the 2026 midterms are finally here, and some North Carolina mail ballots are already rolling out the door. But only about a million dollars of Trump’s money has left the building so far, and I don’t think voters are going to love what’s heading to their screens. Again from the Post:
Allies have also criticized Trump’s preference for promoting his own record, arguing that super PACs are most effective at attacking opponents, as MAGA Inc. did in 2022.
The nonprofit arm of Trump’s political operation, Securing American Greatness, premiered its first midterm ads on Wednesday, spending just under $1 million, according to the tracking firm AdImpact. The ads, set to air nationwide, feature video clips of Trump talking about tax breaks in his domestic spending legislation and lower prices for eggs and prescription drugs. One spot uses Trump’s friend Dana White, the chief executive of the Ultimate Fighting Championship.
Of course he’ll spend it on himself! Remember that in Trump’s bubble, people only think he sucks because they don’t know enough about the great things Natalie and the Cabinet Boys say he’s done. He’s promising 400 or 500 percent million dollars, but I could easily see Trump spending a few million here and there and eventually washing his hands of the whole thing if his approval number doesn’t go up. Back in 2016, super PACs spent big to boost Jeb Bush’s position in New Hampshire, but JEB!’s downward spiral did not abate. Trump had rather disavow himself of the results than look like THAT kind of a loser.
So it’s on to option #2: Demonize Democrats and Blame Republicans. On that front, Trump might well allow “Securing American Greatness” to run a bunch of TV ads, at least to be sure his supporters understand the true extent to which Democrats are tools of Lenin and The Devil.
By contrast, Trump would fight the “blame Republicans” part of the war via “Truths” and frequent quotes to the media. If everything goes down the toilet, he can say he knew all along those idiots would let him down. On that front, if congressional Republicans are going to lose, Trump had rather they lose big. That way, he gains both an excuse and a eternal target for derision. In any case, the leader cannot fail; he can only BE failed. So, fuck ’em!
I bet that if Trump does spend money, though, that he’ll will want to spend it on TV. Hell, a whole lot of Democratic campaigns want to do the same, as my friend Will Robinson does not tire of pointing out. In 2026, a whole lot fewer Americans watch broadcast TV and cable than they used to, but Trump’s a TV guy — it’s wired into his brain. If something’s not on TV, it’s not really real (Note: see update on Trump’s new streaming TV buy above).
Back in 2016, Trump didn’t think he could actually win. He could let digital director Brad Parscale run wild on Facebook because YOLO. But he could see the financial benefit, too. The main thing Parscale’s large-scale Facebook advertising did was build that email fundraising list we discussed above. Plus, in 2016, Facebook was still (kind of) cool.
This year, I think if he wants to spend, Donald Trump wants to spend on himself. Maybe someone can persuade him to let “Securing American Greatness” try something different, but this comes as Trump is issuing a gold coin featuring his scowling face. So good luck. I think he’ll spend it disproportionately on TV not just because of nostalgia for the broadcast era. It is also rumored that both the intertia of old ideas and just a bit of profit-seeking might shape decisions in the consulting/super PAC industrial complex. Or so I have heard.
The Post article did mention a Republican political professional wishcasting that sparse broadcast inventory could force Trump’s team to spend on streaming ads. And perhaps someone can get the idea into leaders’ heads that TV means a lot more now than it used to. I’d certainly love for a few influential people in the Democratic political space whatever to embark on whatever exploration process could lead them to enter the current decade. Looking up the numbers for YouTube, Hulu and Roku would be a good start.
So we’re possibly looking at an independent expenditure campaign doubly stupid. Start it with Trump-is-awesome content, which will go great! Follow it with a lot of negative ads featuring quick editing, dark music, out-of-context quotes, and Hasan Piker. Deliver it all via a media mix that misses huge numbers of voters, including a disproportionate number of people who are not already old.
As a Democrat, I say huzzah! Go forth and shout Trump’s name from every rooftop and every steeple. It’ll be…awesome.
One last note: CBS News has broken down Elon Musk’s 800k political spending to date, and it finds that about a about a quarter of it is going to unspecified “digital ads”. These could be anything from streaming ads to Twitter/X, but I bet at least includes the latter. The rest has has gone to direct mail, which may come as a surprise. But unlike Trump’s new national TV buy, mail is eminently targetable by household, and Musk is a data guy. Mail also has a long lead time, particularly with the clownish goings-on at the Postal Service right now, so it makes sense that it would be an early expense. (Note: see update on Musk’s new streaming TV buy above)
So, will Musk spend the $100 million or more he has reportedly approved? Will he spend more? Who knows! Will it work, particularly in light of the sweet debacle of his 2024 attempt to swing a Wisconsin state supreme court race? Who knows!
But if I were Jimmy Talarico in Texas and I need someone to have my back, I think I’d prefer tens of thousands of volunteers and a few hundred thousand grassroots donors over a couple of whiney, racist billionaires who could walk away at any moment. Stupid money or no money? Republicans candidates may not get to choose. But voters will — on Election Day.
– cpd