Campaign 2012 should be decisive in a big bunch of ways — we’ll get a new president and a fundamentally different Congress…or we won’t, for example. But political digerati will be watching for special insights in our own field, since this election cycle is effectively a massive testing opportunity for online political messaging, recruiting and organizing.
Back in August, we looked at a long series of questions the campaign could answer, ranging from the effectiveness of mobile canvassing to the possibility of a voter backlash against highly targeted advertising. In the current issue of Campaigns & Elections, I examine four of these questions in detail, with a particular focus on the relative power of the Republican air dominance vs. the Democratic strength on the ground. Here’s a sample:
By contrast, Romney and his allies have largely ceded the (online-smartbomb-assisted) ground war to the Democrats, choosing instead to put their resources into TV ads running on heavy rotation in battleground states. In part, the difference is driven by the fact that a lot of Republican money is flowing through Super PACs and other outside groups, which are neither oriented nor staffed with grassroots organizing in mind.
It also seems to reflect a deeper bias in Republican strategy—local organizing just isn’t in their blood this year. Just one example, their presidential campaigns were already out-staffed on the ground by the Obama camp for months during the Republican primary season.
Read the full article for more, and definitely let me know what you think in the comments. Is it true that Republicans aren’t into field this year, for example, or am I misreading the trends? If you’re working on campaigns, tell us what you’re seeing — there’s no substitute for real-world experience.
– cpd
September 13th, 2012
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Hmmm, let’s see what Catalist, Aristotle, NGPVAN et al have to say about this latest move from NationBuilder:
Today we are introducing the NationBuilder Election Center – a free nationwide voter file that also includes an API designed for developers. It’s available for political use by everyone and anyone. Campaigns without heaps of money or party endorsements can access it. Voters can claim their records and express their contact preferences. Developers can build applications to engage more people in the political process. And the data will become more and more accurate over time.
Information wants to be free! Particularly if someone’s willing to put a lot of work into MAKING it free. Of course, the usual caveats apply — how often will the data be updated? How will its accuracy be ensured? How easy will it be to work with in practice?
Also note that companies like Catalist and NGPVAN don’t just sell the voter file; they typically add additional data, for instance by cross-referencing voter information with consumer databases to build up demographic profiles of individual citizens. Plus, they offer technology to help campaigns leverage the voter file, such as NGPVAN’s Social Organizing tool.
Still, this is another example of NationBuilder trying to shake up an industry, just as its initial launch helped push political CRM providers to innovate. It’s also an example of the natural progression of a data-driven market niche, one that I’ve seen many times in many spheres over the years — at first, companies can thrive simply by aggregating and providing publicly available information. Later, though, the data itself typically becomes a commodity, and businesses have to provide real value on TOP of it to survive, typically by appending information to the original data set or by creating and selling tools that help customers put it to use. It’s all part of the cycle of life…or in this case, of an information-driven industry.
One other consideration — with an API available, outside developers can use the voter data for their own purposes. What kind of creative ideas will result? Will be interesting to see….
– cpd
September 13th, 2012
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