Five Reasons Republicans Shouldn’t Be So Confident about November
Also published on The Huffington Post
According to some of our Republican colleagues, the Democrats’ electoral fate is already settled in 2010, and it ain’t lookin’ good. With a 30- or 40-seat Republican gain in the House now regarded as a conservative projection, and John Boehner salivating at the prospect of seizing Nancy Pelosi’s gavel, even my friend and fellow online politico Patrick Ruffini has sipped the Kool Aid, arguing that Republicans might be seating 70 new Congressmembers next year.
But not so fast: six months is an eternity in politics, and we can already see the outlines of a Democratic resurgence through the fog of spin and rhetoric. Most importantly, time is on the Democrats’ side; that, and a few good decisions. Not that I’m looking ahead to Democratic gains in the Fall, since we’re defending far too many marginal seats picked up in the wave of 2008, but I do see a more typical incumbent-party loss in the range of 20-30 seats in the House and a handful in the Senate. Here’s why:
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